The decision of the Election Commission, a Constitutional body independent of the government, to hold assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand in five phases from 25 November to 20 December, is a move which is at once constitutionally correct and strategically pragmatic.
EC could have deferred polls in J&K in view of the unprecedented floods that ravaged the state recently but it did not. The EC move is in larger national interest.
Both the poll-bound states are afflicted with the problem of insurgency of different kinds – in J&K the security woes are largely Pakistan-choreographed while in Jharkhand it is because of left wing extremists better known as Maoists.
Representational image. Reuters
With the announcement of elections, one can expect further spike in cross-border firing from Pakistan, particularly along the Line of Control, as Pakistan would leave no stone unturned to sabotage the J&K polls.
Though strategically it is a good move to hold elections in J&K during the peak of winter as all mountain passes – Pakistan army’s favourite revolving doors for pushing armed terrorists into Indian territory – would be closed, making infiltration well nigh impossible.
There is a strong possibility that Pakistan may try to take out its frustration in J&K and covertly aid and abet Maoist insurgents in Jharkhand to make up for its ‘losses’ in J&K. That explains the EC decision to hold five-phase polls in the two states.
Pakistan anticipated assembly elections in J&K and upped its ante on diplomatic as well as military fronts in a bid to internationalize the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan’s civil and military leadership has been playing the broken record of Kashmir for over a month. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif harped on the K word in his address to the UN General Assembly last month. The Nawaz Sharif government also formally approached the United Nations for the umpteenth time and urged the world body to play a role in resolving the Kashmir dispute, but the UN refused to oblige.
General Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s most powerful man and the chief of Pakistan Army, touched his country’s jugular vein earlier this month while addressing a passing-out parade at Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul. "Lasting peace in the region will only come about with the fair and just resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the will of Kashmiri people as enshrined in the UN resolutions," General Sharif said.
Pakistan’s generation next politician and leader of Pakistan People’s Party bragged before party workers in Multan on 20 September thus: "I will take back Kashmir, all of it, and I will not leave behind a single inch of it because, like the other provinces, it belongs to Pakistan." Bilawal indulged in this grand-standing while he was flanked by two former prime ministers, Yousaf Raza Gilani and Raja Pervaiz Asharaf.
The biggest bluster came from none other than former President Pervez Musharraf, the architect of the Kargil War of 1999. General Musharraf went on record as telling a TV channel earlier this month that Pakistan needed to “incite” those who are fighting in Kashmir. “We have source (in Kashmir) besides the (Pakistan) army… People in Kashmir are fighting against (India). We just need to incite them … In Kashmir, we can fight with the (Indian) army from both the front and back.”
It is another matter that Musharraf, once the all-powerful leader of Pakistan is now virtually a non-entity and he is not taken seriously even in his own country. He made anti-India and anti-Narendra Modi remarks only to appease his country’s military establishment at a time when he is being tried for treason.
Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaz Aziz too has contributed to this long list of Kashmir-centric remarks by Pakistani leadership and accused India of exploiting the border tensions to attract voters in the upcoming assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir.
The above comments from Pakistan’s political and military leadership should be seen as a well orchestrated design of the neighbour. Pakistan is desperately trying to internationalize the Kashmir issue and is desperate to sabotage the state assembly polls by hook or by crook.
Pakistan’s desperation has been further accentuated by two hard realities which are not to Islamabad’s liking. First, Pakistan’s diplomatic overdrive has come a cropper and the international community has refused to intervene.
Second, the strong retaliation of Indian soldiers to Pakistan’s cross-border firing has come as a surprise to both Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan was not able to send hordes of terrorists into India as Prime Minister Modi gave a free hand to the soldiers and encouraged them to give a befitting response. Moreover, Pakistan has no hopes of pushing in infiltrators around the time of elections in J&K as the passes would be closed and the terrorists would have to battle the winter’s fury apart from Indian soldiers.
As of now, anti-India elements in Pakistan’s military establishment are left with two options: (i) to create trouble in Jharkhand at the time of elections to “compensate” for Pakistan’s limitations in the Kashmir theater; and (ii) to hold public protests in democratic, western capitals to keep the kettle on.
One such jamboree, the so-called Million March, is slated for Sunday in London.
The Modi government should be smiling. After all, Pakistan is paying through its nose to fund such Kashmir-centric campaigns across the world. It is not bad for India. There is a limit to what Pakistan can spend on such activities. India has no such limitations. New Delhi simply has to watch.
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